The delivered-in bulk diesel average price fell to 104.14ppl plus VAT in September according to data collated by RHA. That is the lowest level recorded by the trade body since August 2021.
Further positives for UK consumers during September were a strengthening of sterling against the US dollar and a reduction in the price of oil to around US$73 per barrel, although the latter now looks at risk with signs of further escalation of conflict in the Middle East.
Nevertheless, both price falls in September largely mirrored the August position. The diesel average during September represents a fall of 22.92ppl, or 18.0%, from its position 12 months earlier and the fifth consecutive month-on-month drop since May.
Since January, the bulk diesel average price as collated by RHA has declined by 10.45ppl, or 9.1%. As September ended, mainstream media reported that filling station prices for diesel and petrol were continuing to fall, giving rise to hope that bulk prices will see another drop across October.
A fly in that ointment may be a worsening situation in the Middle East, with Iran now heavily involved, although predictions for oil prices are mixed. Some forecasters believed in late September that the outlook is relatively stable, but others expect that an uptick is likely. The latter gained weight as October opened.
For Brent crude, the United States Energy Information Administration (USEIA) had revised downwards its predictions for Q3 and Q4 2024 and the first half of 2025 in its Short-Term Energy Outlook published on 5 September.
While that document was released before escalation in the Middle East – for which a better indication of the impact will come in October’s forecast – USEIA’s most recent expectation at the time of writing is that the Q3 average will sit at US$81.89 per barrel, down on the August prediction for that quarter of US$84.06.
For Q4, the Administration believed in early September that the Brent average will fall to US$81.64 per barrel. That contrasts with the August position, which had it rising to US$85.97. The July forecast placed that figure at US$89.64.
Into 2025, USEIA expects that oil will lift to US$83.34 in Q1 and US$85.00 in Q2, although both of those figures are lower than those issued in August. The Administration typically revises all forecasts each month, giving scope for further change depending on geopolitical conditions.
