The future of the £2 bus fare cap in England is uncertain. Has it been a good thing? Almost certainly yes, in my view. It is simple, equitable, and independent of age and postcode (but not country!).
It is under threat because it is ‘unfunded’ and the sort of cost that HM Treasury dislikes because (a) it is revenue spending, and (b) it is now a fixed ‘pot’. But honestly, compared to HS2 or a tunnel under Stonehenge, it is loose change in the pocket.
The cap always required an exit strategy, but other than hints from the previous government of raising it to £2.50, I am not sure if there ever has been one.
If the £2 bus fare cap goes overnight, there will be some huge fare rises. Passengers do not react well to percentage increases measured in the hundreds. Look at South Yorkshire in 1986. Forget privatisation, deregulation, and whoever was ‘in control’: It was the overnight 350% fare increase that hit ridership hard as fares adjusted to ‘market levels’.
We are seeing what the alternative might be in Bus Service Improvement Plan-funded schemes for young people. Reduced fares for under-25s, under-22s, under-19s or under-18s that may capture singles, day tickets, weeklies, or all three, and valid purely locally or across certain local authority boundaries.
It is, as the phrase goes, a ‘bugger’s muddle’, which has only added to the confusion of fare discounts and limits already in place for those under a certain age.
Has Scotland got it right in offering free bus travel to under-22s? Not in my book. Some will try to deny it, but since reimbursement relates to single fares, farepayers suffer some eyewatering singles north of the border.
An eyewatering fare that you suddenly face on your 22nd birthday, after 22 years of paying nothing. There are whispers coming through that the scheme in Scotland is unaffordable, so we will see.
Free bus travel for older people is almost set in stone. In most areas, it is linked to state pension age, which has a logic to it, but how do you justify keeping it at 60 in some locations? Suddenly offering free travel to part of the working population that has more disposable income than those younger than them lacks rationality.
Why, in the UK, do we stress over revenue support to keep fares low? The principle and associated costs are a given in mainland Europe and even the United States!
