The delivered-in bulk diesel average price dropped to a five-month low of 107.09ppl plus VAT in March according to data collected by trade body RHA, but future direction of crude oil is mired in volatility from global trade policies, the US Energy Information Administration (USEIA) has warned.
RHA’s bulk diesel average price for March represented a fall of 3.4% from February’s 110.87ppl and is the lowest return since the 105.79ppl recorded in October 2024.
The March figure was also 8.2% down on the position 12 months prior. It reflected a drop in the Brent crude average to US$71.47 per barrel, its lowest position since mid-2021 and US$3.05 or 4.1% off February’s return of US$74.52.
Brent continued to fall into April, with the per-barrel total down to around US$66.40 at the time of writing. Furthermore, sterling strengthened against the US dollar in March and continued that trend in April.
Hinting that diesel prices may continue to recede, USEIA significantly lowered its quarterly predictions for Brent across the remainder of 2025 and throughout 2026 between Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts published in February and April.
February’s report presented a 2025 average of US$74.50 per barrel, but that was down to US$67.87 in the April release.
For 2026, the Agency in February estimated that the year-long average would be US$66.46 per barrel. That was down to US$61.48 in the April report, although previous editions have demonstrated that longer-horizon forecasts can change quickly depending on economic factors.
In particular, the latest short-term forecast from USEIA notes that its modelling was completed on 7 April and that policy changes since then are not incorporated.
“Recent developments in trade policy and oil production led to a significant drop in oil prices during the first week of April,” it continues, observing a 14% drop between 2 April and 7 April.
“We expect that prices for crude oil and other commodities will continue to experience significant volatility as market participants assess the effects of trade policies.”
Nevertheless, the lowered predictions for oil prices are based on an expectation that global inventories will increase from mid-2025 as OPEC+ members remove production cuts, and growing uncertainty around demand.
