Delay to bus franchising plans in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough until at least 2028 has heightened uncertainty for operators and could put future investment at risk, according to transport lawyer Frank Suttie of Freeths.
Work will now be subject to an implementation review after newly elected Conservative Mayor Paul Bristow ruled out increasing the mayoral precept, a key funding assumption behind the original business case.
During the election campaign, Mr Bristow was openly sceptical about franchising, but Mr Suttie suggests that withdrawing from the scheme may now be legally complex. The Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority (CPCA) has already declared its entire administrative area to be covered by rollout of bus franchising.
“Mayor Bristow will be learning that his options are limited,” Mr Suttie says. “This implies that a series of procurement exercises will be conducted to bring the scheme into effect across the entire administrative area.”
Scaled-back franchising remains possible, but would further extend the timetable. “An available option will be to propose a variation allowing the scheme to be focused on particular areas in which [Mayor Bristow] has confidence that the scheme is affordable. But that involves a further process, including consultation and a decision-making period of at least six months. Even 2028 will start to appear unrealistic,” Mr Suttie warns.
The review follows confirmation from CPCA that no viable “commercial model” currently exists for full implementation. For operators, Mr Suttie says the impact is already being felt.
“In the meantime, operators will continue to have concerns about the future shape of local transport. Investment decisions are likely to be put on hold.”
The timing is particularly challenging given looming decarbonisation pressures. “This comes at a time when significant EV investment — sometimes requiring depot relocation — should be high on the operator’s agenda. There is now a provisional legal deadline banning the sale of new diesel buses into the market, which is barely five years away.”
