Delivered-in bulk diesel again saw little change in price during June, coming in at an average of 112.44ppl excluding VAT across the month according to data collated by RHA.
That represented a fall of 0.3ppl, or around a quarter of a percentage point, from May. It gives an eight-month trend of diesel averages remaining below 118ppl, although each of the April, May and June returns were higher than those seen during the same months of 2023.
Nevertheless, the six-month average for the first half of 2024, at 115.15ppl, was slightly below that for the same period in 2023, which was 115.91ppl. The latter was influenced by higher prices in the first quarter before a steep fall for the second.
In comparison, the first half of 2022 saw an average of 137.02ppl as the fuel crisis of that year broke, but indicating that current prices are perhaps still elevated, 2021’s first half return was 97.57ppl.
While delivered-in bulk diesel prices remained calm for the first half of 2024, oil was less so, with figures often higher than in some other months since the start of 2023, albeit at nothing like the 2022 crisis period levels.
The US Energy Information Administration (USEIA) suggests via its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook that no major fall in oil prices is expected during the remainder of 2024 and across 2025.
Forecasted figures for those six quarters in its July report were lifted compared to the June document, although month-on-month published predictions from USEIA have consistently shown significant shift. The latest projections for Q3 and Q4 2024, while higher than figures issued in June, are still below estimates for the same quarters released in April.
The July projections see the Brent per barrel average lifting by around US$2.20 in Q3 from the Q2 actual to come in at US$87.97 before rising further to US$89.64 in Q4. During 2025, USEIA expects a peak of US$90.66 in Q1 before consistent falls to finish at US$86.00 in Q4.
Despite ongoing fluctuation in the Agency’s forecasts, its predictions for Q1 and Q2 2024 made in July 2023 proved reasonably accurate, both coming in at less than US$1.75 variance on the actual.
