Every major technological transition follows a pattern. New entrants emerge and grow rapidly. Some incumbents adapt and thrive. Others don’t, and they disappear. This isn’t fate — it’s the result of choices made or avoided.
The coach and bus industry is in the early stages of exactly this transition. And yet, at industry events and in trade discussions, I keep hearing the same refrain: electric vehicles can’t do what we need them to do. They don’t have the range. They’re not reliable. They’re too expensive. The technology isn’t ready.
Here’s the problem with this view: it’s looking for a silver bullet that solves 100% of operations on day one. That silver bullet doesn’t exist — but it doesn’t need to. Electric vehicles can already handle the vast majority of coach and bus work. Not every route, but most routes. Not every duty cycle, but most duty cycles. If you can solve for 90% or 95% of your trips, you have a commercially viable transition path. The remaining edge cases can be managed.
I have sympathy for operators facing genuine constraints. Capital is tight. Depots weren’t designed for charging infrastructure. Some routes genuinely are difficult. But none of these are unsolvable problems. They require planning, investment, and a willingness to engage with the detail — but they’re not rocket science. The operators who are struggling with this transition aren’t struggling because the problems are impossible. They’re struggling because they haven’t yet decided to properly engage.
Too many in this industry have concluded that electric vehicles are somebody else’s problem, or a problem for 10 years’ time. They attend presentations that confirm their scepticism and walk away feeling vindicated. Meanwhile, manufacturers are shifting production. Policy is tightening. The end date for new non-zero-emission vehicle sales will arrive whether we like it or not.
Consider Norway. Fifteen years ago, electric vehicles dominating its car market seemed unlikely. Critics said the infrastructure wasn’t there, the vehicles weren’t good enough, the climate was too harsh. This year, over 95% of new car registrations in Norway are electric. The transition happened faster than almost anyone predicted — not because it was inevitable, but because enough people chose to make it happen.
The same dynamic is coming to coach and bus. Some of the operators who will dominate in 20 years don’t exist yet, or are small enough that incumbents haven’t noticed them. Some will be existing operators who chose to adapt early. And some of today’s established names will be gone — not because they were unlucky, but because they decided this wasn’t their problem until it was too late.
The question isn’t whether this transition will happen. It’s whether you’ll be part of it.
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