The average price of delivered-in bulk diesel fell slightly during February to 110.87ppl plus VAT, data collected by RHA has shown.
That was a 0.44ppl or 0.4% reduction from the 111.31ppl seen in January, although both of those returns followed five consecutive months of sub-110ppl levels. GBP showed a modest strengthening of two cents against the US dollar across the month, while Brent saw a fall to just shy of US$75 per barrel from almost US$77.50 in January.
Even though delivered-in diesel continues to show some month-to-month price fluctuation, its average has remained below 118ppl plus VAT since November 2023 according to figures collected by RHA from members.
The February return was almost 7ppl below the average seen 12 months earlier of 117.84ppl, while GBP was weaker against the dollar by one cent over the same 12-month period.
Although Brent fell in February, the US Energy Information Administration (USEIA) broadly held its oil price predictions for 2025 and 2026 from its January forecast, albeit with the February Short-Term Energy Outlook having a slightly lifted prediction for Q1 2025.
Nevertheless, USEIA notes via the report a belief that oil production will gradually rise. When combined with relatively weak global demand, inventories will also increase and prices will fall, it believes.
To that end, the Administration posits that an average of US$74 per barrel in 2025 will fall to US$66 in 2026. Global production of liquid fuels is forecast to grow by 1.9 million barrels per day this year and by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026.
However, USEIA caveats the latest forecast by noting that its macroeconomic assumptions were finalised before the Executive Order of 1 February that imposed a suite of tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico. Outlooks will be updated as policies change, it adds.
Although bulk delivered-in diesel has largely stabilised in the region of 105-112ppl field, one member of the coach and bus industry has aired a concern that Chancellor Rachel Reeves may choose to increase fuel duty during 2025 to raise revenue.
