News that bus patronage in Great Britain rose strongly in the year to March will be welcomed by an industry that continues to ponder revised patterns of demand. But raw data on the sector, published in bulk by the Department for Transport (DfT) on 30 November, shows that it also has much to consider when variation in rates of growth is brought to the table. That breadth is seen among customer segments, with elderly and disabled users still some way off returning in full, and regionally.
In a headline figure, there were 3.745 billion bus passenger journeys in the 12 months concerned. That is up from 3.121 billion in the previous period, a 20% lift. Concessionary usage is a major influence, particularly in Scotland; the period in question was the first full year in which under-22s resident there were entitled to free bus travel. Hence, overall usage across all demographics in Scotland jumped by 29.2%, outstripping the 19% uptick in England (excluding London) and 15.1% in Wales.
When concessionary usage is stripped back to passengers who are elderly and disabled, the picture is different. In Wales, growth in that segment was just 7.8% – little more than half of the country’s rate of increase across the board. For England (excluding London), the same demographic extended its use of buses by 14.6%, and in Scotland by 14.4%.
That elderly and disabled concessionary growth continues to lag overall patronage increase will be little surprise, for members of that segment have been identified since 2020 as challenging to entice back to bus. The continuing difficulty adds weight to calls for revision of the generation factor in reimbursement calculations.
Regional and local disparity in bus patronage
In England, data is further broken down into local authority (LA) areas. There is major spread in how each of those saw bus patronage change in 2022-23 compared to 2021-22. Indeed, three of them – Blackburn with Darwen, Durham, and East Riding of Yorkshire – saw small falls in usage.
The clear local leader in patronage growth over that time period was Thurrock. There, the 3.4 million journeys in 2021-22 grew to 5 million a year later, giving a year-on-year rise of around 47%. The average for English non-metropolitan areas was 19.4%.
Of the East of England’s 11 LA areas, of which Thurrock is one, six saw year-on-year growth of 25% or better. That region’s average patronage uplift was 25.5%, making it the best-performing of England’s regions. The North East saw the lowest regional pick-up, at 13.7%; London returned 19.6%.
Looking back a decade, performance compared to 2012-13 was also greatly varied. Across Great Britain, the 3.745 billion journeys in 2022-23 was 26.6% down on 2012-13. For England (excluding London), the drop was 28.3%. In Scotland – despite the large recent year-on-year rise thanks to under-22 free travel – the 10-year decline was the same: 28.3%.
Wales again gives greatest cause for concern in the longer term. Its most recent overall figure was 44% lower than 10 years earlier. London was down by 23.7%.
LA-specific data for Scotland and Wales is not published by DfT. But while the above figures for each nation demonstrate that much remains to be done to build back patronage, seven of England’s LA areas were above their 2012-13 usage in 2022-23. They are City of Bristol; Cornwall; Reading; Southampton; South Gloucestershire; Thurrock; and Wokingham. Of those, all bar City of Bristol saw a rate of return above the average for England (excluding London) in 2022-23.
Work to do on concessionary bus patronage
Concessionary growth in Wales lagging behind the remainder of Great Britain will be a further worry to operators there. Elderly and disabled concessionary passengers formed 38.3% of all bus users Wales during the year to March, and their slow rate of increase is among factors hindering the Welsh bus industry’s rebuilding.
That percentage of concessionary usage is much higher than the average for all three nations in question (20.4%), with England at 19% and Scotland at 32.2%. Given their over-representation among Welsh bus passengers, politicians there must produce a strong work programme to attract those travellers back in the development of bus franchising.
DfT helpfully breaks down concessionary figures for England into regions. There is significant variation. For elderly and disabled passengers, Yorkshire and the Humber saw the slowest growth rate from 2021-22 to 2022-23, at 8.7%. London saw an 18.6% increase and the East of England an 18.5% uplift as part of the 16.1% average rise for those users across England.
For all concessionary travellers, including young people, growth across Great Britain was 18% over the same period. In Wales it was 8.3%, while for England (excluding London), the return was 13.3%. Predictably, by far the best performer was Scotland, where all concessionary bus usage surged by 69.8% thanks to the under-22 scheme.
Vehicle numbers continue to fall
The number of buses used as PSVs in Great Britain by operators that run local bus services again shrunk in 2022-23, to 34,800 from 36,500 a year earlier. Such a trend has been in play since 2013-14. Minibuses licensed as PSVs and in the fleets of operators that run local bus services also reduced slightly, to 1,734 under DfT’s counting method.
On employee numbers, full-time equivalent platform staff employed by operators that run local bus services in Great Britain fell by around 1,300, to approximately 82,100 in 2022-23. Those working in maintenance and cleaning, administration, and other roles, all grew; such a contrast is difficult to explain, although the modest uplift in administration numbers could be accounted for by the development of partnership working and increased reporting requirements.
Pressure on local authority support is clear
Changes in operated mileage illustrated the challenge faced by operators and LAs alike. The overall figure for England (excluding London), Scotland and Wales was 963 million miles in 2022-23. That was down from 1.01 billion miles in the previous 12 months, a fall of around 4.7%.
England (excluding London) saw its overall bus mileage reduce by 39 million to 740 million during that timeframe, a drop of 5%. In Scotland, the industry shed 8 million miles over the same period to record 171 million, a reduction of 4.5%. In Wales, there was a very small increase, although in all three countries, totals remained well below those seen pre-pandemic, as was the case for London. In the capital, 282 million miles in 2022-23 represented a small fall from 292 million in 2021-22.
Mileage is also broken down by DfT into commercial and tendered. On commercial services in England (excluding London), Scotland, and Wales, distance run fell from 862 million miles in 2021-22 to 802 million miles in 2022-23, a drop of 7%. In England (excluding London), the fall was 7.9% and in Scotland it was 4.7%. Wales saw a negligible increase in commercial coverage.
The tendered landscape told a different story. For England (excluding London), Scotland and Wales, the total mileage in 2022-23 was 160 million, up from 148 million the previous year. In England (excluding London), supported mileage grew from 106 million in 2021-22 to 119 million in 2022-23. That was despite funding pressures on LAs, but will no doubt have been influenced by some councils choosing to reduce ENCTS reimbursement levels and redirect money saved into contracted services.
Scotland saw a slight drop in its tendered bus mileage of around 1 million to 27 million, or 3.5%. In Wales, tendered mileage increased, but by an amount small enough not to register as a percentage; it came in at 14 million.
Southern England the strongest region?
Mileage in England is a further dataset broken down regionally by DfT. Losing the most between 2021-22 and 2022-23 was Yorkshire and the Humber; the distance covered by commercial and tendered bus services there fell by 9.6%. The North East dropped 8.3% and the West Midlands 7.4%.
However, the South East (excluding London) lost under 1% of its mileage, further indicating regional disparity in bus industry health and – possibly – giving some support to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s decision to focus money released by the part-cancellation of HS2 on more northerly parts. There were no regional increases.
Figures for both bus patronage and miles operated by the mode make clear that work is still to be done to return the industry to its pre-2020 state. It must be hoped that policy interventions – both actual and planned – can do that before driving future growth beyond that position.
DfT data covers many more segments of the bus industry for 2022-23 and previous years, including costs, fares and revenue; government support for the sector; and reliability and punctuality. All can be accessed here.
