It’s chaos in Westminster! There are so many scenarios as to what happens next following agreement being reached between the UK and the EU on the draft terms of the Withdrawal Agreement that it’s impossible to cover them all here.
Resignations
The surprise resignation of Jo Johnson as Minister of State at the Department for Transport (DfT) on 9 November, followed by the resignations of two Cabinet ministers and a smattering of junior ministers and parliamentary aides following the Cabinet meeting to discuss the draft Agreement, is not in itself serious enough to bring Theresa May down.
At the time of writing, it’s beginning to look as if no further resignations will follow.
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Vote of no confidence?
But the PM isn’t out of the woods yet. The issue now is whether Sir Graham Brady, the Chair of the 1922 Committee, receives the necessary number of letters from Conservative MPs demanding a vote of no confidence in her.
Contrary to some comments in the press, Sir Graham does not have to call the vote the instant he gets the 48th letter – party rules allow him to delay the vote if he considers this to be in the national interest.
‘Meaningful’ vote
He may first want to wait until we see the outcome of that “meaningful” vote in the Commons on the terms of the Agreement. If the Commons votes against it, and the current signs are that it might, the PM surely has to resign anyway, doesn’t she?
The outcome of the “meaningful” vote may depend on the position of moderate Labour MPs, a number of whom have said they will back the deal in the national interest even if the formal position of their party is to vote against. There might be enough Labour MPs willing to support Theresa May to counterbalance the DUP MPs and those die-hard Tory Brexiteers who have vowed to vote against it.
DfT return for Jones
Anyway, Jo Johnson’s resignation has paved the way for Andrew Jones to return to the DfT. Jesse Norman has been promoted to Minister of State to fill the vacancy created by Jo Johnson’s resignation.
Andrew Jones returns as Parliamentary Under Secretary of State to fill Jesse Norman’s old position. He was last at the DfT from May 2015 to June 2017 and the bus industry will recall that he had responsibility for bus policy.
Frankly, he did not perform his ministerial role with distinction and showed no real grasp of his brief. He struggled too as Exchequer Secretary at the Treasury after he left the DfT, which is why, in the January reshuffle earlier this year, he was demoted to a mere Vice Chairman of the Party – a non-job if ever there was one.
So, his return to the DfT is a bit of a surprise. At the time of writing, there has been no formal announcement on the allocation of ministerial responsibilities, but the suggestion is that Andrew will take the rail brief, leaving buses with Nusrat Ghani. Phew!
