The average price of delivered-in bulk diesel rose to 111.31ppl plus VAT in January and broke the 110ppl barrier for the first time in six months, according to data collated by trade body RHA.
That was a 3.1% uptick from December 2024’s return of 107.93ppl. The latest figure remains below the 114.59ppl recorded 12 months earlier, although January saw sterling fall to its lowest monthly average against the US dollar since October 2023. The delivered-in bulk diesel average has remained below 120ppl since that latter month in RHA’s dataset.
Oil prices rose to an average of US$78.35 per barrel in January. Reasons cited include tighter sanctions on Iran and Russia and the period of cold weather, with a spike at the beginning of the month partially balanced by a fall towards the close.
Some sources suggest that the tit-for-tat imposition of tariffs driven by United States President Donald Trump will have a limited impact on global oil prices. Others believe that oil will fall as global economic growth slows, although there is some caution of near-term volatility.
The US Energy Information Administration (USEIA) has forecast that Brent will decline to an average of around US$74 per barrel in 2025, down from almost US$81 in 2024. It believes that in 2026, the average return will be approximately US$66, which hints that diesel prices could recede next year.
An actual level similar to the oil prediction for across 2026 was seen in the earlier months of 2021. At that time, the delivered-in bulk diesel average was below £1 per litre.
On 21 January, USEIA said that the forecast for 2026 will be driven by strong global growth in production of petroleum and other liquids and a slower demand uptick, although its position was arrived at before further sanctions against Russia were introduced by the US on 10 January.
The Agency caveats its prediction by noting that “significant uncertainty remains in all aspects of oil supply and demand.”
In the shorter-term, USEIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook – published on 14 January – moderately lifted oil price predictions for Q1 and Q2 2025. A tail-off in Q3 and Q4 is expected ahead of the projected decline in 2026.
