Bus operators face the prospect of continuing falls in underlying demand as car ownership grows, according to a new report by analysts Passenger Transport Intelligence Services.
The Bus Demand Jigsaw, analysing changes in demand for services in different parts of the country since 2004/05, finds that a complex interplay of demographic, economic and social changes has driven underlying patronage downwards in most areas.
A combination of high-quality operation and partnership initiatives has offset the decline in some places; in others, measures have mitigated the falls.
The 119-page report analyses bus travel by journey purpose, and suggests that shopping trips by bus have fallen by 12% since 2010 and personal business trips by 9%.
“These changes mean 151 million fewer bus journeys around the country – or over 3% of current demand,” explains report author Chris Cheek. The falls have been offset by small increases in commuter, leisure and education trips.
Looking at competing modes, the report says that there is as yet no evidence that the taxi and private hire market is growing as a result of apps such as Uber or Gett.
“The size of the taxi market can be measured by consumer spending surveys or by data from the National Travel Survey. Up to 2015, neither show any increase in demand over the previous three or four years, despite apparently large increases in supply,” Mr Cheek added.
A series of graphs in the document seeks to explain changes in bus patronage by changes in a range of factors, using established demand elasticities.
Such work can explain both the falls that have occurred in many places and the gains that took place in London up to 2014, reinforcing the view that specific economic and demographic factors have driven demand for buses in London, rather than different regulation.
Looking ahead, the report examines the possible consequences of the Department for Transport's 2015 Road Traffic Forecast, which envisaged substantial growth in car ownership and urban traffic congestion during the period to 2040.
“Without other measures, we would expect this to lead to ongoing falls in demand of between 1.5% and 2% a year,” Mr Cheek says.
But he emphasises that further decline is not inevitable.
“Decisions made about service supply, quality of provision and the factors that influence bus speeds will all affect the outcome as well.”
- Full report available here
