The average price of delivered bulk diesel rose steeply in August, with figures collated by RHA showing that it gained 9.29ppl from July to come in at 120.53ppl plus VAT.
That represents an uptick of 8.4%, and is a third consecutive month-on-month rise from the year-to-date low of 105.72ppl recorded in May. While the further increase in price is unwelcome, the August bulk diesel average remained below January and February figures and was 22.58ppl, or 15.8%, lower than the 143.11ppl of 12 months earlier.
However, it is expected that further increases will follow in the final third of 2023, driven by a difficult oil market. That is “very concerning,” one coach operator has noted. While hire rates remain strong, anecdotal evidence suggests that the highs witnessed during the peak early summer season have receded somewhat, despite rising fuel expenditure.
The August Short-Term Energy Outlook from the US Energy Information Administration (USEIA) supports wider suggestions that oil prices are likely to remain high in the medium-term.
USEIA has revised upwards its forecasts for that period thanks to an extension of the voluntary cut to production in Saudia Arabia and increasing global demand, although the Administration believes that there will be “moderate downward pressure on crude oil prices” from Q2 2024.
Against that prediction, the Administration has considerably increased its forecasts for Q3 and Q4 2023. The August report now has those as US$83.77 and US$87.65 per barrel respectively, up from US$78.32 and US$79.97 in its July publication.
Predicted oil prices in the first half of 2024 have also been revised upwards in the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. Those now sit at US$88 and US$87 per barrel for Q1 and Q2 respectively, although a minor reduction in projected global oil consumption over the same two periods was introduced by the Agency in its August report.
