Last week we saw just how weak Theresa May’s position is. For a moment during 4 December it looked as if sufficient progress had been made in the Brexit negotiations for fresh talks to start on the terms of a trade deal, only for the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to pull the rug from under Theresa May’s feet.
It refused to sign up to the proposition that Northern Ireland would maintain ‘regulatory alignment’ with the Republic of Ireland after Brexit – meaning that Northern Ireland would effectively remain in the single market and customs union, unlike the rest of the UK.
Would the DUP end the ‘confidence and supply’ agreement with the Conservatives on this issue, as one or two DUP MPs have suggested, and thereby significantly increase the risk of a vote of no-confidence in the Commons?
Labour in No. 10 and 11
If Theresa May lost such a vote, that would trigger a general election which some say could result in Jeremy Corbyn in No. 10 and John McDonnell in No. 11.
Such is the loathing in which these two are held by the DUP that I struggle to believe that it would take that risk.
Rather, I suspect the DUP is using its new-found political muscle to force concessions out of Theresa May and will, at the end of the day, somehow reach agreement on the Brexit deal. It’s political one-upmanship which Theresa May apparently didn’t see coming.
None of this may be directly relevant to the bus and coach industries (apart from cross-border transit).
But it demonstrates just how weak and incompetent this government is.
Weak, because a party of 10 MPs can effectively hold the government of the day to ransom.
Incompetent, because Theresa May clearly failed to discuss the details of the proposed agreement with the DUP, when the issue in question was so obviously one that the DUP would struggle to agree to.
This should have been apparent to any self-respecting politician who has any understanding of the politics of Northern Ireland.
Worst PM ever?
The weakness and incompetence of this government is such that it must surely be in all our interests that once the Brexit negotiations are concluded Theresa May, who must surely go down in history as one of our worst Prime Ministers, must stand down.
A proper leadership challenge can then take place.
It’s questionable whether he or she should seek to call an early general election, perhaps after nine months or so of settling in, or go on until the deadline of May 2022 set by the Fixed Term Parliament Act.
If it were me, I wouldn’t want to continue to be held to ransom by the DUP.
And I would judge that the risk of Jeremy Corbyn winning are slim, if not remote, because Labour should be miles ahead in the polls but are only neck-a neck with the Conservatives. I can’t see the electorate flirting with Jeremy Corbyn again.
