Copy deadlines can conspire against you. This issue comes out just one day after the Commons Second Reading of the Bus Services Bill. So, rather than wait a week before commenting, I’ve dug out my crystal ball and have a punt on what I think might transpire.
We know what ministers will say. They must promote the Bill and espouse its virtues.
But the really interesting issue is whether any Conservative backbencher will be prepared to stand up and question why a Conservative government has come forward with a Bill that makes it somewhat easier for local authorities to take back control of bus services outside London.
It’s a very good question, and while the devolution agenda can be used as some form of justification, it doesn’t really get to the heart of the issue.
I’m looking forward to watching Chris Grayling justify the franchise powers in the Bill – because he won’t, in his heart, believe a word of it.
Which Conservative backbenchers might stand up and question their own government’s proposals?
The only MP I can recall who questioned the Bill at the time of the debates on the Queen’s Speech was Christopher Chope (Christchurch, Hampshire). Ideologically he will be troubled by the Bill so, assuming he is around on the day, I fully expect a snappy contribution from him.
There are plenty of Conservative backbenchers who will be ideologically troubled by the Bill: from John Redwood, Andrew Bridgen and Kwarsi Kwarteng, to John Whittingdale, Bill Cash, Graham Brady and Peter Lilley. I’m sure there are many others.
The trouble is, I have a hunch that many backbenchers who you would expect to be troubled by the Bill regard themselves as simply too senior to worry about a Bill about, well, buses.
My fear is, therefore, that the debate will be pretty low grade, and is in danger of being poorly attended, with most speeches from relatively junior backbenchers. Most of them will do their duty and follow the instructions from the Whips, and offer their whole-hearted support for the Bill.
If you are an operator hoping for some kind of mass rebellion from the Conservative benches, I fear you will be disappointed.
How Labour handles the Bill will be interesting – but not that difficult to predict. The party surely can’t oppose it. Indeed, logic suggests Labour MPs should warmly welcome it.
And, perhaps this is what operators should hope for: Labour MPs congratulating a right-wing Secretary of State for bringing the Bill forward.
Now that should really get under Chris Grayling’s skin, and might even encourage him to toughen up the Bill’s franchise provisions!
Whatever the theatre of it all, the Bill will pass its Commons Second Reading, probably without a vote. That much I am happy to predict.
