Cabinet reshuffle rumour is rife yet again, and the Secretary of State for Transport’s name is in the frame for being moved, potentially even sacked with an ignominious return to the backbenches.
With parliament now back after the Christmas and New Year break I have little doubt that the corridors of Westminster will be buzzing with speculation over the veracity of these rumours and who may be due for a move, a sacking or a promotion.
Dangerous times
These are dangerous times for Theresa May. Reshuffles always run a risk of upsetting people and creating discontent on the backbenches. Theresa May’s position is so weak that she can hardly afford to do that.
On the other hand, precisely because her position is so weak, it can hardly get weaker so she might as well press ahead.
After all, there can be little doubt that there is a need to inject fresh blood into the Cabinet, and bring on some of the best of the intake from the 2010 and 2015 general elections. There is something of an ‘old guard’ feel about much of the Cabinet and quite a number of those holding ministerial office.
I would take the gamble. Theresa May might upset a few who are sacked or disappointed not to get promotion. But the far bigger prize is that she might stamp her authority on the party and shore up her position.
In any event, Theresa May will surely stand down after the Brexit negotiations are completed and I can’t see any Conservative MP or group of MPs causing a leadership challenge before then.
Moreover, continuing speculation about a reshuffle can be quite debilitating on a government.
So my advice would be go for it, clear the air, bring on fresh blood, reboot your Cabinet and ministerial ranks and reassert your authority as best you can.
Crystal ball
I’m often asked at this time of the year to predict what might happen in the months ahead. This may be fun, but high risk as most predictions will be wide of the mark.
But I have little doubt that 2018 will be as turbulent as 2017.
All the ingredients are there: Complex Brexit negotiations that have the potential to turn really nasty, and a government whose hold on power will always be tenuous and exposed to potential defeats in parliament on specific policy or legislative issues.
It will be a year just like any other – policy U-turns, the odd minister forced to resign over some indiscretion, local elections in May to get excited about (and Labour looks set to do well in the London Borough elections by the way), and, best of all, the Confederation of Passenger Transport’s Annual Dinner to excite the senses…
