The price of delivered-in bulk diesel showed further signs of stability in March with a small drop in the average figure from February, data compiled by RHA has shown.
March’s average was 116.61ppl plus VAT according to the trade body’s figures, down by circa 1% from February’s 117.84ppl. The latest return means that fuel prices have remained within a 4.57ppl window for the past five months in a notable change from previous behaviour.
However, oil prices returned their third consecutive monthly uplift in March, with GBP having remained largely constant over that time. The diesel average last month was 1.43ppl below the 118.04ppl return 12 months earlier, which preceded a bottoming out at 105.72ppl in May 2023 before lifting to peak at 127.06ppl four months later.
Less positivity surrounds oil price predictions made by the United States Energy Information Administration (USEIA). In February its Short-Term Energy Outlook predicted that Brent would rise in Q2 before declining in the second half of the year, with a modest downward trajectory continuing in 2025.
However, in March, per-barrel figures for the remainder of this year were revised upward, although an expected decline in 2025 remained. In early April, USEIA further lifted its predictions on oil prices for 2024 and 2025 and it now believes that the average across this year will be US$88.55 per barrel against an actual of US$82.41 in 2023.
On a quarterly basis, the Q1 actual average of US$82.96 is now forecast to ascend to peak at US$91.34 in Q3 before tailing off to close the year. 2025 continues the earlier predicted downward trend, albeit based on higher figures than those presented in February and March.
An expectation of strong global oil inventory draws and ongoing geopolitical risks are cited by USEIA as the reasons for an uplift to its predictions. Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and extension of OPEC+ voluntary production cuts also add to upward pressure, it notes.
