In a time where all talk is on Brexit and a general election, one thing that can be agreed on is the air quality agenda
It’s party conference season.
Both the Liberal Democrat and Labour Party conferences had one thing in common: No one wanted to talk about anything other than Brexit or a general election.
The new, young leader of the LibDems, Jo Swinson, hopes to win 300 seats (currently she has 18, six of whom are defectors), and wants her candidate, Siobhan Benito, to have a good crack at Sadiq Khan in the London Mayoral election next May.
The Labour Party Conference was only part way through when the news of the Supreme Court’s decision on the proroguing of Parliament came (I was with John McDonnell at that very moment).
The politicians decamped back to London and that was that.
Only Brexit talk
What all this tells us is that there is almost no bandwidth to talk about anything else. There was a brief moment when the news from Thomas Cook and Wrightbus came through, and then back to the arguments which have been raised for the past three years.
This all makes planning for the future very difficult for everyone in the transport business.
With a general election very possible, agencies and operators will be concerned over Labour’s stated policies to bring bus services back under much closer state control. Even more revealing was not only the promise to provide free bus services to everyone under 25, but to attempt to follow the example of Luxembourg and provide free travel for all.
The air quality agenda
The other concern – promoted by all political parties and supported in the major cities – is a faster route to zero-emissions. The air quality agenda is one of the few areas where there is broad cross-party support. Climate change continues to make the news and the politicians have in their heads the mantra ‘diesel bad; electric good’. We know a Euro VI engine is miraculous in terms of emissions, but in the world of politics it’s still a diesel.
It is widely expected that all the London Mayoral candidates will undertake to deliver 100% zero emission well before 2037 – maybe as early as 2028. This will need not only a good rate of new vehicle purchase but also some conversions too.
But the main concern for all operators in the UK at present must be the life expectancy of the diesel bus, even a Euro VI one, and what this will do to residual values of new diesel buses currently in delivery.
[crosshead] Under threat
Operators will already have had experiences as old Euro standards are replaced by newer ones. Now the diesel engine itself is under threat – in buses for sure, and increasingly in coaches as the technology for zero emission develops and as cities declare more and more of their territory internal combustion engine-free zones.
Not for the first time, residual values will fall; leasing companies will need to reflect the risk in financing over the medium-term assets that have a short-term life; and the industry will need the skills and infrastructure to look after a more complex vehicle.
That all looks like higher costs to me.
