The impact of coronavirus has taken its toll on airlines, but what will it mean for the local transportation industry?
The collapse of Flybe last week was a stark reminder, if one was needed, that the coronavirus is likely to have a severe impact on transport operators as people curtail their travel plans.
And I’m not just talking about international or regional travel, but local travel too.
If, in a worst-case scenario, major sporting and other events are cancelled, schools and universities are closed, or even if towns and cities are forced to “lock down” as has happened in northern Italy, you can see demand for local transport falling through the floor.
Of course, it’s always important not to overreact, and as I write it’s far from clear just how bad this virus will be. But transport operators will, I imagine, have noted the collapse of Flybe with some alarm, given reports that demand for air travel was down by some 40% for some airlines.
If that kind of drop hits the public transport network, then I fear operators are in for a tough few months. I hope that the worst case doesn’t materialise.
Upcoming Budget
Nonetheless, most analysts are predicting a serious downturn in the world economy, and I have little doubt that when you read this the new Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, will have delivered a Budget on 11 March that was much more cautious than was originally planned before the coronavirus situation broke.
I know of a number of businesses which are dependent on supplies from China and which are now really struggling.
Still, among all this doom and gloom there is a bright spot. There are rumours that in order to help contain the spread of the virus parliament might shut down for a few months.
For Westminster watchers like me that may not be such good news, but for the public at large, whose regard for politicians is low at the best of times, not having MPs shouting abuse across the Commons chamber might be a blessed relief.
The impact on Brexit
Quite what impact all of this will have on the Brexit trade negotiations, heaven knows.
The timetable for securing a trade deal between the UK and the EU is impossibly tight even without the coronavirus threat which could lay low a significant number of those involved in the negotiations.
Perhaps it’s academic, because the “red lines” laid down by each side at the start of the negotiations suggest to me that reaching an agreement seems impossible unless one side or the other makes major concessions.
Back to the Budget: When the Prime Minister announced a funding package of £5bn for buses and cycling the other week, he said there would be more to come in the Budget.
I’ll examine what the Chancellor has to say on this with some interest. I just can’t recall a time when buses have been such a priority for a government.
If the Chancellor does indeed have more to give away for the industry, then that at least will provide some cheer in this difficult time.
