For those who missed the announcement in mid-March, the Department for Transport (DfT) has carried out a modest reorganisation.
In a press release issued on 18 March primarily to announce the appointment of Alex Hynes as the new Director General of Rail Services, we were told that a new Public Transport and Local Group was being formed, essentially bringing together rail and local transport policy under one directorate.
Not a big deal in the overall scheme of things, of course, but I was a touch surprised that this was hidden away at the end of the press release.
No matter. The reality is that the reorganisation, while perfectly sensible, will not result in any actual change in day-to-day policy for bus or rail — or indeed for coach. You may ask, in that case, what’s the point of the reorganisation?
I can’t see an incoming Labour government wanting to inherit a Conservative bus strategy and just tinker with it. Labour will presumably want a complete rewrite
But with the planned creation of Great British Railways and with that the slimming down of the current DfT railways directorate, some form of reorganisation was always likely, even sensible. But, as I say, the nuts and bolts of day-to-day policy won’t really change.
Strategy update
Bus policy remains pretty static in any event and, aside from the occasional announcement that more funding is being provided for local transport authorities to invest in new zero-emission buses, there isn’t much of huge importance to comment on.
I’ve heard one or two people suggest that now may be a good time to dust down the National Bus Strategy and update it but, with a Labour government now looking like a racing certainty once the general election is held, I can’t see any point.
Let’s wait for the general election to be out of the way and then, yes, let’s have an update.
Actually, as Labour is committed to making bus franchising a great deal easier, a rewrite of the strategy is the obvious process for explaining how this will be achieved in practice.
Further, in any event, I can’t see an incoming Labour government wanting to inherit a Conservative bus strategy and just tinker with it.
Labour will presumably want a complete rewrite to put some real meat on its claim that it will fix what it sees as a broken bus policy.
Election timing
So, for those who want an update of the National Bus Strategy — be patient. The election isn’t that far off – and I’m putting my money on 14 November.
Why? Because surely Rishi Sunak will want to use the Conservative Party conference as the launch of his party’s election campaign. The party conference ends on 2 October.
So, my hunch is that the Prime Minister will go to the Palace on 3 October to seek approval for the dissolution of Parliament — which will, of course, be forthcoming — and then Parliament will be formally prorogued on the following Monday or, perhaps, Tuesday 8 October.
There must be a minimum of 25 working days for an election campaign and the first Thursday after 25 working days from 8 October takes you to 14 November.
That would be just over five weeks for the election campaign, which is surely long enough, although it’s possible that Mr Sunak will want a slightly longer campaign to give the Conservatives more time to reel in that Labour poll lead, or to allow Keir Starmer to make some massive gaffe.
That could point to 21 November for the general election, but I’m sticking with 14 November as a pretty good bet.
Local elections
It’s not long, of course, until we have the local and Mayoral elections on 2 May. Given the current polls, it’s looking like the Conservatives are going to suffer major losses.
Memories can be short so it’s worth remembering that, the last time these council elections were held in May 2021, the Conservatives did really well, seeing more than 200 extra councillors elected and taking control of a number of councils.
It even won the parliamentary by-election for Hartlepool held on the same day — a seat the party had never previously held.
How political fortunes have changed in just three years! And, if the Conservatives do receive a serious drubbing in the local elections, there will almost certainly be renewed talk of a possible leadership challenge against Mr Sunak.
The idea of changing leader yet again so close to a general election sounds too ridiculous for words, and it’s hard to see how a new leader could change the party’s fortunes sufficiently to prevent Mr Starmer gaining the keys to No 10.
But there is some logic in the claim that a new leader might just prevent Labour winning a landslide, and even halt the flow of disenchanted Conservatives to Reform UK.
And here’s a key point: Reform UK is now on 15% in the polls, just five percentage points behind the Conservatives.
An update on the National Bus Strategy appears unlikely during this parliament
As almost all members of Reform UK are disenchanted former Conservative members, the combined support for the Conservative Party and Reform UK is just five percentage points behind Labour.
Labour’s large opinion poll lead is therefore something of a mirage if you look at the combined “Conservative” vote.
Given our first-past-the-post electoral system, Reform UK looks unlikely to win any parliamentary seats, but it could do serious damage to the Conservative Party and hand Labour that landslide victory.
The problem for the Conservative Party is that the leadership of Reform UK is making it very clear that it does not want any form of electoral pact — rather that it wants to see the current Conservative Party smashed so that, out of the ashes, a new more right-wing party can emerge. This could be a general election like no other!
In the meantime, those anxious for a new National Bus Strategy must bide their time until the election is done and dusted. Between now and then, I suspect the humble bus isn’t going to feature much in the general political landscape or policy arena.
