As I write, it’s just two weeks until the General Election. The polls consistently tell us that the Conservative Party is heading for a pretty comfortable majority. But much can happen in two weeks. It’s still possible for the Labour vote to rally and for the Conservatives to slip up.
There’s little doubt that Jeremy Corbyn has had a shocker of a campaign. His Midas touch, so in evidence in 2017, seems to have deserted him.
Back then, he was still relatively fresh as Labour’s leader. Corbyn Mania was still alive and well. Now, the gloss seems to have come off as he has buckled under scrutiny, principally of his position – or lack of it – on Brexit and in addressing antisemitism.
Jeremy Corbyn in trouble at General Election?
So poor has his performance been this time, don’t be surprised if we see other leading Labour figures take more of a centre stage in the final two weeks of the election campaign.
For the Conservatives, complacency could be the biggest danger. But I don’t think it’s been an especially impressive campaign by Boris Johnson and his team. It seems to have been surprisingly low key, even cautious. Perhaps that is because the party is terrified of putting a foot wrong and repeating the mistakes of 2017’s campaign. I can’t say that I’ve been overwhelmed.
And as for the poor Lib Dems, it seems that every time Jo Swinson appears on TV, her party’s poll rating drops a point or two.
For me, this campaign seems to have been more of a bidding war. Who can outbid who on how much they will spend on public services, who will plant more trees in a year and so on, rather than a really serious debate about the kind of policy and guiding political principles that will underpin the party’s approach when in government.
You can glean that to a degree from the specific pledges and spending commitments that have been made. So it’s been a dull campaign lacking in real fight, spirit and real political discourse.
Too close to call this time around…
Do I believe the polls? I don’t know. They’ve become notoriously unreliable in recent years. I do believe that there are more variables in play in this election than in previous contests.
Brexit is a factor, of course, and the number of marginal seats is high, Tactical voting is also likely to be more prominent, certainly in those constituencies where parties have done deals not to put up candidates.
It feels to me that it will only take a modest swing one way or the other to have a potentially dramatic impact on the outcome. Right now, it feels as if we could still have a hung parliament – or Boris could actually win with a large majority.
It’s just too difficult to call.
