‘Labour set for power as general election crunch time approaches’

Nigel Farage’s decision to stand as a candidate for the Clacton constituency in the general election on 4 July and to take over as leader of Reform UK has finally injected some energy into what was fast becoming a very boring election campaign.

The Conservatives currently hold Clacton with a massive majority of 24,702 and would have expected to hold the seat even with Labour’s massive poll lead.

However, it’s worth remembering what happened when a former Conservative MP who held the seat, Douglas Carswell, defected to UKIP in 2014 and triggered a by-election: UKIP overturned a Conservative majority of 12,068 and took the seat with a majority of 12,404 — a swing of 44%.

So there is every expectation that Mr Farage will take this seat and become an MP at the eighth time of asking.

He has to overturn a huge Conservative majority, but if anybody can do it, he can. He has charisma, is a well-known figure and is a good campaigner. Further, you only had to see the massive turnout when he launched his campaign on Clacton Pier to realise that he already has a strong following.

Seeing Mr Farage perform in the House of Commons could provide us with bags of entertainment. Putting aside my own political persuasion, I hope he wins for that reason alone. He’s a good orator and has a reputation for plain and honest speaking. If he does become an MP, Prime Minister’s Question Time could be a great deal more fun than in the recent past!

Opinion polls

Up until the first TV debate between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer on 4 June, it was striking that the polls had barely moved since the election was called. Labour’s lead over the Conservatives remained at a massive 20% or so.

Normally, the polls narrow fairly quickly once an election is called but not this time, it seems. A snap poll taken immediately after the first debate suggested that Mr Sunak had performed the best, but only by the narrowest of margins and certainly not well enough to really eat into Labour’s poll lead.

A large majority?

The day before Mr Farage announced his decision to stand, one poll suggested that Labour would secure a parliamentary majority of 194, with the Conservatives returning just 140 MPs.

If that came to pass, it would be the Conservatives’ worst performance at a general election since 1906. I’m finding it hard to believe that Labour will secure such a large parliamentary majority but, if it does, we are in uncharted territory, politically speaking, for two reasons.

There is every expectation that Mr Farage will take this seat

First, with more than 100 MPs not standing for re-election and with so many Conservatives who are standing for re-election expected to lose their seats, including a significant proportion of the current cabinet, it would leave one of the most inexperienced parliaments in living memory. I’m not sure that’s a good thing, whatever party you support.

Secondly, most of the Labour cabinet would have no experience in government, with Ed Miliband and Yvette Cooper being two of few exceptions who spring to mind. The same would apply to most of the junior ministers, which would leave a great deal of power with the civil service.

Mr Starmer may be licking his lips at the prospect of a massive parliamentary majority, but I suggest he needs to be careful what he wishes for.

The Labour Party is made up of factions, just as with the Conservatives, although it’s been largely hidden in plain sight while the party has been in opposition.

However, with a large parliamentary majority, these factions could break out into the open safe in the knowledge that it won’t risk Mr Starmer’s ability to govern.

To take just one example, his commitment to retain the UK’s nuclear deterrent will not go down well with many in his party, and his Deputy Leader, Angela Rayner, is known to oppose nuclear armaments.

There will be many other issues where the parliamentary party will be uncomfortable about Labour government policies and it’s quite easy to see civil war breaking out, and quite quickly — just as it did in the Conservative Party.

I’m not sure that large parliamentary majorities are a good thing

It may not impede Mr Starmer’s ability to govern, but managing his parliamentary party could be a real headache — increasingly so. Therefore, while Labour may be excited by the idea of a large majority, it comes with some real downsides.

I’m also not sure that large parliamentary majorities are a good thing. A healthy majority, perhaps in the region of 60 or 70, is fine and provides at least for stable government. But it also means that it only needs 30 or 40 backbench MPs to rebel on a particular issue and the government’s majority in any vote is under threat. It’s a good way of keeping the government in check and unable to take parliament for granted.

The Farage factor

Of course, the polls are also telling us that 25-30% of the electorate is undecided; the consensus is that most of these will break to the Conservatives rather than Labour.

Set against that, however, is the new factor in Mr Farage. Expert pollster John Curtice has estimated that his standing could result in the Conservatives losing an extra 60 seats because more people will be inclined to vote for Reform UK, thereby splitting the Conservative/right-wing vote in a larger number of constituencies and enabling the Liberal Democrats or Labour to steal them.

Many things could still happen in this election campaign that could materially trim the Labour majority. However, I don’t think many doubt that, come 5 July, Mr Starmer will be Prime Minister.