UK bus builders will take little encouragement from the government’s effort to support domestic production, writes our Westminster insider
The UK Bus Manufacturing Expert Panel held its most recent meeting in mid-February, I understand.
Given the political context against which the expert panel was established last year, with the threat of closure of Alexander Dennis’s Scottish plants and a small number of MPs regularly expressing concern over operators buying Chinese buses, I was expecting ministers to rush out a report from the panel with a range of recommendations that could help support UK manufacturers, albeit within the terms of procurement law and World Trade Organisation rules.
The fact that, as I write, no such report has been published suggests to me that the panel has identified only limited options to support UK manufacturers.
There has been much talk of developing a 10-year pipeline of orders for new electric buses to give manufacturers greater certainty – indeed, that was among the panel’s specific remits – but we still have no sight of this.
Of course, in the absence of strong measures to support UK manufacturers, this pipeline will be of as much value to overseas manufacturers as it will be to Wrightbus and Alexander Dennis.
In the absence of strong measures to support UK manufacturers, this pipeline will be of as much value to overseas manufacturers as it will be to Wrightbus and Alexander Dennis
If my hunch is right that there is little of real substance in what the panel has recommended or is recommending, there will be some disappointment among those manufacturers, as well as among the MPs who have been pressing for more overt support for them.
My instincts tell me that, if the panel had identified a range of options which could genuinely support UK manufacturers, ministers would have been falling over themselves to publicise it in a report.
To be fair to ministers, they have always highlighted the constraints that exist in developing an overt “buy British” policy, so one has to assume that they set up the panel with their eyes wide open.
And the political pressure to be seen to be doing something – anything – to support UK manufacturers, especially given the threat of Falkirk’s closure, was entirely understandable.
Nonetheless, if the end result is as uninspiring as I suspect it might be, they may have created something of a rod for their own backs by raising expectations. I look forward to reading the panel’s report, when it finally emerges.
TfW appointment
Meanwhile, I was amused to hear the news that Robert Montgomery had been appointed by Transport for Wales (TfW) to its bus franchising team. As I recall, Mr Montgomery was a fierce and outspoken critic of bus franchising when he was Managing Director of Stagecoach UK Bus. Talk about poacher-turned-gamekeeper!
There’s nothing wrong with that, of course. Further, I’m told that the main reason for his appointment was to help drive sensible commercial behaviours to ensure that any franchise contracts with operators represent good value for money.
Having someone with Mr Montgomery’s background from the private sector may be a very sensible, even inspired, appointment, and if it results in more sensible franchise contracts, that can only be a good thing.
Greens success
Perhaps I can now turn my mind to wider political issues – first, the result of the Gorton and Denton by-election. This was Labour’s sixth safest seat, yet the party was knocked into third place behind the Greens and Reform. Indeed, the Greens’ majority of 4,402 was much bigger than many had expected. The omens for Labour in the elections on 7 May aren’t looking at all good, and the Conservatives also look set to receive a real drubbing.
Indeed, in the YouGov poll which came out a few days after the by-election, the Greens had overtaken both Labour and the Conservatives and were in second place, just a few percentage points behind Reform.
I can’t help feel that, when Reform and the Greens come under serious scrutiny at a general election, they may find their support starts to drop quite dramatically
It’s hard not to conclude that, if the results on 7 May are as bad for Labour as most pollsters predict, Keir Starmer will finally face a leadership challenge. Whether the party will really want that if war is still raging in the Middle East remains to be seen. This tragic event may yet give the Prime Minister a stay of execution, but I suspect it will be no more than that.
The current rise in the popularity of the Greens is truly astonishing, especially as its national policy platform has come under almost no scrutiny. I find it hard to believe that its success in the by-election and its current position in the polls are a reflection, not of positive support for the party, but of antipathy towards the established parties and a desire to keep Reform at bay.
I can’t help feeling that, when Reform and the Greens come under serious scrutiny at a general election, they may find their support starts to drop quite dramatically. Perhaps I’m wrong – maybe the electorate has become so disenchanted with the established parties that any other party looks attractive. Time will tell.
Spring statement
The Chancellor’s spring statement on 3 March was a non-event if ever there was one – although that was deliberate, to be fair.
For all her upbeat report on the state of the economy, the harsh reality is that events in the Middle East will surely make her assumptions over the next year or so completely meaningless. Let’s hope and pray the war is over very soon.
