Jeremy Corbyn is safe in post, and a soft, even ultra-soft Brexit is now the only show in town. While his result was astonishing, he still lost. Is this the high point of his popularity?
The 2017 general election result is the most unexpected of the modern political era. When called in April, the Conservatives were riding high with a 20% poll and an expected to deliver a landslide. Jeremy Corbyn widely derided, even within his own party, as the most unelectable Labour leader since Michael Foot.
In the end Theresa May lost 12 Conservative seats, including Kensington and Chelsea, a bastion of Conservatism, albeit only by 20 votes.
Not strong or stable
Theresa May called this election to deliver “strong and stable” leadership; she is most certainly not. This was one of the worst general election campaigns for the Conservatives, based on a manifesto that was a total disaster. She took a strong Conservative victory for granted – a huge political error no matter what the polls say.
How long her minority government can survive is anyone’s guess. Any agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), propping up Theresa May’s administration with its 10 MPs, will be on a ‘confidence and supply’, case-by-case, basis. They give Theresa May a working majority of just two. As Sinn Fein won’t take up its seven seats, and the Speaker does not vote, it provides a cushion of 10 votes.
The DUP will demand a high price for its support, and almost every vote will be close, if not on a knife-edge.
Theresa May has totally lost her authority. I don’t see how she can stay as leader; perhaps it’s only months if not weeks. If she does stand down her successor will surely face strong and, in my view, legitimate demands to call another general election.
Jeremy Corbyn may have confounded his critics, but I have a hunch this may be his high-water mark – and he still lost.
Conservative voters in London and the south east who gave the party a kicking did so in revenge for Brexit. They created a situation where a ‘hard Brexit’ is undeliverable, and ‘soft Brexit’ will be the only political show in town.
‘Brexit’ revenge
Labour secured its biggest swings in Conservative constituencies that voted ‘Remain’. Nobody expected Jeremy Corbyn to win, so Conservatives in London and the south east felt they had the luxury to kick Theresa May in revenge for Brexit.
With Jeremy Corbyn now closer to No. 10 than ever expected, I suspect they will return to normal behaviour at the next election.
Labour’s 262 seats are only marginally more than the party’s performance in 2010 when Gordon Brown was ejected from power. Labour is still quite a way off from power.
Given Theresa May’s weak position it’s no surprise the Cabinet reshuffle was very modest; Chris Grayling stays as Transport Secretary. I’ll return to what it means for transport when I’m back from holiday.
