It’s just over two months until London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) comes into force. Operators that will be affected by it – which is most within a 100-mile radius – have no doubt planned fleet upgrades around the 8 April date.
But spare a thought for vehicle manufacturers. Calling the inevitable lull in purchasing that will follow the ULEZ a famine is over-dramatic. The coming of Clean Air Zones (CAZs) and Low Emission Zones elsewhere in the UK will take up at least some of that slack.
Yet how can these OEMs plan effectively for future demand when outside interference so markedly impacts the requirements of their customers?
It would be easy for an operator to disregard such a concern, but manufacturers see it differently. They regard fluctuations in demand as incredibly difficult to manage.
In extreme cases, they are reluctant to invest in developing new ideas and concepts with no guarantee of a short- to medium-term return because of cyclic demand that is exaggerated by the influence of politicians that do not grasp the industry’s realities.
The next requirement for coaches in some areas is undoubtedly zero-emission capability. At least one city is already talking seriously about mandating it in the medium term. But for a manufacturer, deep in a dip that inevitably follows a period of artificially-inflated demand, there may be little motivation to carry out necessary yet expensive development work to achieve zero emissions.
And so, the step beyond Euro 6 might well be delivered more slowly than it would have been had the market been left to follow its own path. That’s what happens when the industry is influenced by those who don’t understand it.
