The average price of delivered-in bulk diesel fell by almost 4ppl in May to its lowest level since July 2023, data compiled by RHA has shown.
That put it at 112.74ppl plus VAT for last month, a drop of 3.91ppl from April’s 116.65ppl. The May figure maintains a trend of broadly consistent averages that has kept bulk diesel at no higher than 117.95ppl since November 2023, although returns in 2024 are yet to approach last year’s low of 105.72ppl seen in May 2023.
Brent fell to an average of US$83.00 per barrel in May. While that represents a reduction of over US$5 from April, it is still above both the US$75.56 seen 12 months earlier and the 2024 low so far of US$78.76, recorded in January.
The downward trend in oil prices continued into early June despite OPEC+ having extended production cuts into 2025. Analysts say that the structure of that decision gives latitude for some voluntary cuts to be removed from October 2024 in recognition of some members of the group wishing to lift output.
Notably, the United States Energy Information Administration (USEIA) via its Short-Term Energy Outlook report for June significantly reduced Brent average price forecasts for Q2 and Q3 from May predictions, with a milder fall for Q4 projected on the same basis.
The OPEC+ position is factored into the latest USEIA figures, although the Administration believes that oil production in countries outside OPEC+ “will remain strong.”
The current quarter is now expected by USEIA to return an average of US$83.71 per barrel, well down from the US$89.30 forecast in May. Q3 is now predicted to come in at US$83.25 compared to the US$90.00 projected in May. The latest USEIA expectation for Q4 is US$86.64.
2025 oil price predictions have not been amended by the Agency from the May report, and so its current position is that the 2025 whole-year average will be slightly above that for 2024.
