2024 held a significant number of surprises for coach and bus as the industry showed that it is nothing if not unafraid to move with prevailing political, commercial and regulatory winds.
Coach consolidation continued. The foremost announcement there involved creation of The Coach Travel Group by the bringing together of seven formerly independent business.
Something perhaps easily forecast for 2025 is that those moves will continue. The Coach Travel Group has made clear its aspirations, with an expectation that more members will be named sooner rather than later. Further additions to the First Bus and Go-Ahead coaching portfolios would seem as likely, based on form this year.
Coach will also be watching its rates closely in 2025. Some at the coalface suggest that those have levelled off in recent months, although another operator in a tourism-heavy market advises that work for next year’s summer season already commands money that is at least as strong as this year.
The most pressing matter for coach remains a need for clarity on PSVAR after the medium-term exemption (MTE) mechanism concludes in July 2026. Anecdotal feedback is that the Department for Transport is saying little about where that may lead, or the time at which a position will be forthcoming.
This needs to be a priority for ministers next year, although the burden of other transport-related policy work set for their worker bees leaves a real risk that the PSVAR can is far from its final kick down the road. But something must be forthcoming in 2025… mustn’t it?
Meanwhile, the Bus Services Bill in England contains much that has long been trailed and little that has not, although mention of socially necessary services – albeit in a rather flimsy fashion – and training to identify and respond to antisocial behaviour were less obvious.
Nevertheless, the Bill is largely a formalisation of longstanding Labour bus policy in England. It talks of new municipal operators and simpler franchising. Yet local authorities lack funding to empty bins weekly, keep libraries open and unblock drains. How are they to afford either of those costly changes to bus service delivery?
That aside, the threat of franchising over smaller bus operators remains significant. Nobody in a position to do so has yet squared that circle, although the pressing need for a solution will be further underlined when the reregulation journey in Wales begins in 2025 and further local authorities in England make the inevitable decisions to progress with franchising.
The answer looms large to those who care to look for it, however: Allow subcontracting and mandate how a minimum percentage of a larger franchise must be operated on that basis by SME operators. Something similar has delivered in Cornwall, and it can do so elsewhere. This is obvious, and it needs amplifying to those formulating franchising plans.
On the operator front, the typical trickle of consolidation and sales continued in 2024, crowned by First Bus’s agreement to return to the London market with the purchase of RATP Dev Transit London. It is difficult to see a slowing of routine deals and movements in 2025, although ‘big bang’ sales are now few and far between and will no doubt remain that way.
Globalisation of vehicle supply continued to expand this year. Oceania is a further continent to feed the UK market via Custom Denning battery-electric buses, while North America will do so from 2026 via the production of Volvo coaches in Mexico.
That leaves South America among permanently inhabited continents to gain representation here, but don’t bet against another name from outside Europe appearing – or perhaps even reappearing – in the UK market next year.
What else of 2025? Further coach operator sales and more local authorities in England going for bus franchising as their avenue for reform aside, it is as difficult to predict as 2024 was 12 months ago. Perhaps that rate of evolution is a beauty of the industry. One thing can be taken to the bank: Next year will not be boring.
A merry Christmas to all from the routeone team.
