Well, well. Theresa May sure knows how to spring a surprise.
Having repeatedly and emphatically said she would not call a snap general election ever since she became Prime Minister, that’s exactly what she’s done.
But what was even more fascinating about the announcement was that it showed that she, and her closest advisers, know how to keep a secret – an art lost on most Prime Ministers since Tony Blair entered No 10.
The first most of the Cabinet knew of her intentions was when it met on the Monday morning immediately prior to her statement.
Behind the thinking
Why the change of mind? The explanation, which is entirely rational, is that had she kept to the 2020 date under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, the Brexit negotiations would be coming to a conclusion in March 2019. This would be just as the government was preparing for an election, and that could have placed the UK in a very weak position in the final stages of the negotiations.
It would potentially also have made the general election in 2020 very dangerous for the Conservatives if Brexit negotiations go badly. So, by going to the country now, and at a time when the polls are suggesting the Conservatives will be returned with a massively increased majority, the next general election will be in 2022, well beyond the conclusion of the Brexit negotiations.
Opportunity knocks
The window of opportunity is also perfect as a June election falls nicely between the French and the German elections, and Brexit negotiations won’t start in earnest until both these are over.
Theresa May also rightly points out that Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP had threatened to vote against the final Brexit deal so by getting a significantly increased majority, and therefore a clear mandate, she can see down that threat.
But these considerations always applied, so while I think her decision is, from a Conservative perspective, probably the right one, I’m struggling to understand why it’s taken so long to reach it.
Moreover, surely a more logical approach would have been to call a general election so it could be held on the same day as the local elections on 4 May. Instead, the electorate will now be called to the polls twice in the space of a month, which I don’t think will be appreciated that much. Voter fatigue could be a real issue.
Brakes on Brexit?
But having called the election, Theresa May needs to win, and win big.
The polls say she will, with a majority in excess of 100 on the cards. I’m not so sure.
There is a significant anti-Conservative bias in the electoral system, and many Labour seats have huge majorities, so even a big swing to the Conservatives may not be enough to unseat bucket loads of Labour MPs.
This will almost certainly become a Brexit election, in effect a second referendum.
There are 16m people who voted against Brexit. Might they, even some of the Conservatives among them, see this as an opportunity to try to put the brakes on Brexit?
Soft Brexit…
And what of those who voted to leave, but didn’t vote for a hard Brexit? With the Lib Dems enjoying something of a revival based on local council by-elections, and consistently saying they will oppose Brexit, I reckon they’re in with a fighting chance of doing quite well.
However, while I don’t think the Conservatives will have a majority as high as some suggest. I think Theresa May will end up with a majority around 50 or 60, which is very comfortable, thank you very much.
Waving off the Bill
What about the Bus Services Bill?
As I write, my contacts in the House currently tell me that in the negotiations between the parties on all legislation that has yet to secure Royal Assent, the Lords will be offered the choice of nodding the Buses Services Bill through its final stage – Lords Consideration of Commons Amendments – as it is, or to see it fall.
No doubt this is designed to head off any threat of the Lords re-tabling an amendment to allow local authorities to set up municipal bus companies.
Given that Labour has made clear that it supports the Bill, even as it now stands, I am sure their Lordships will do the sensible thing and nod the Bill through.
The Bill can then be rushed down to Buckingham Palace so the Queen can give her Royal Assent.
By the time you read this, it may all be done and dusted.
