The average price of bulk delivered diesel fell to 118.04ppl excluding VAT in March according to figures compiled by RHA. It is the first time since February 2022 that the average was below 120ppl, and the lowest monthly return since January 2022.
Such a position represents a 3.6% fall from February, an 18.6% decline from the position a year earlier (when the average was 144.94ppl), and a 24.0% reduction from the peak of June 2022, when diesel averaged 155.41ppl at the height of the fuel crisis. RHA notes that prices fell further as March drew to a close.
The average price of Brent saw a further drop in March. It sat at US$79.21 per barrel, the lowest since the US$74.10 of December 2021. At the latter point RHA’s bulk diesel average was slightly below 112ppl, but the value of sterling against the US dollar has decreased in the meantime.
However, against largely good news for diesel in March, the OPEC+ nations in early April announced an unexpected further cut in oil production that it was quickly said could lead to a stiff increase in prices. One source has suggested that the reduction could see a US$10 increase in per-barrel figures, according to Reuters.
The United States Energy Information Administration in a short-term energy outlook update of 6 April revised its forecasts of oil prices. It now predicts that Q2-Q4 will remain within the US$86-87 range, for an average for the year of slightly over US$85. The Administration still foresees drops through 2024 to an expected US$78 in Q4 and adds that economic uncertainty could lead to lower demand for oil in 2023 than first thought.
However, other sources suggested that oil prices will be considerably higher. One predicts that Brent will reach US$95 by the end of this year and US$100 by the close of 2024.
