If the bus industry is to fulfill its role in combating the twin problems of air quality and congestion it is increasingly apparent that the debate over ownership and regulation serves only to ignore the fact that declining bus patronage and mileage is driven by factors such as the rapid growth in online shopping and the impact of technology on the workplace.
It wasn’t a good starting point as delegates to this year’s CPT Scottish Conference were confronted with a very bleak summary of the challenges ahead.
In her introduction CPT Scotland Chair and Managing Director of Whitelaws Coaches Sandra Whitelaw explained that within the next two years the bus industry in Scotland faces a consultation on the sustainability of the Concessions Scheme, further changes to the Bus Service Operators Grant (BSOG), a review of the National Transport Strategy, the introduction of Scotland’s first Low Emission Zone (LEZ) and a new Transport (Scotland) Bill, which is expected to have bus as one of its key themes.
Though this was a realistic appraisal it was also a plea for stability geared to extract a response from the Minister for Transport & Islands Humza Yousaf who was attending his second Conference. However, there was nothing to excite when he took his turn at the podium.
Although largely conciliatory and claiming to be sympathetic, the Minister was unrepentant. Saying that, in the face of declining bus patronage, the ongoing reviews were necessary, he warned: “Don’t confuse stability with status quo.”
He didn’t rule out franchising but said: “Statutory Partnerships are the most exciting prospect.”
Two sessions
If there was anything positive to say, then it was left to the other guest speakers who framed their presentations within the context of meeting passenger expectations through the evolving use of technology, though this was tempered by the question of ‘what technology?’
Chris Martin of TAS Partnership presented detailed figures to show how levels of transport subsidy had changed over the years of austerity, concluding that the shift from revenue spend to capital spend pointed the way ahead, while recommending working in partnership with local authorities.
Dr Gerard Whelan, KPMG Director of Corporate Finance Government and Infrastructure, provided a detailed analysis of bus patronage trends from a soon to be published report commissioned by the CPT. He too concluded that the industry needed to strengthen alliances but to also improve passenger experiences and continue to invest in quality. Having listed factors such as online shopping and the effect of technology in the workplace as the drivers behind on-going decline in patronage and mileage, he said: “The debate needs to move way beyond ownership and regulation.”
John Dowie, First Bus Director of Local Strategies, spoke of an industry so insular that it sometimes gave the impression of resenting other people’s views. “There is a glimmer of hope,” he said, recommending positive engagement on air quality, capital expenditure opportunities and “the bus as part of ‘place-making’ – i.e. that it is seen as absolutely essential.
Ross Martin of Scottish Inclusive Growth outlined a number of social and economic changes affecting bus usage, asking why the voice of the industry has been very quiet.
Bertrand Deiss of Transport Scotland identified the vision for active travel as part of the country’s second National Transport Strategy, while Steven Salmon of CPT assessed the relative merits of three English demand-responsive initiatives.
It was a return to Conference for Stagecoach Group Deputy Chairman Will Whitehorn who again predicted the impact of technology by 2030.
Meanwhile Josh Littlejohn described how he successfully started his social enterprise business.
2020 vision
The Conference, held over two days earlier this week in the upmarket surroundings of Donald Trump’s Turnberry hotel and golf complex, brought together industry professionals from within the Scottish passenger transport sector. Of the 143 delegates it was notable that this included 50 representatives of the bus operating sector – in the main representatives of the larger operators.
The aim was to what the coach establish what the coach and bus sectors will look like in 2020 and to what extent the industry is able to shape that future.
However, the outcome was more about the here and now, such is the pace of change brought about by advances in technology.
Whereas in recent years the Conference has often dealt with the nice to know rather than the hard issues directly impacting on the industry, this year’s agenda not only confirmed the severity of the challenges ahead but successfully showed that there are opportunities that will flow should the bus be able to successfully fulfill its role in combating air quality and congestion.
