Potential for a bus patronage explosion in Wales through ambitious long-term investment in services and infrastructure has been highlighted by WPI Economics. In modelling around bus’s contribution to net zero goals, WPI says that the approach could deliver a 387% uplift in usage in Wales by 2050 from 2018/19 levels, including 116% growth via modal shift from car, equalling 390 million more annual bus passenger journeys.
Those percentages are above what would be returned via the same approach in England, WPI adds, although the scope of percentage bus usage growth needed there to meet net zero obligations is less. In England including London, patronage increase via the same investment model would be 166% from 2018/19 levels by 2050, including 50% through modal shift from car, or 6.2 billion extra annual trips.
Even then, the hypothetical package would see both countries fall well short of delivering the extent of modal shift from car to bus that the consultancy believes is required to achieve net zero by 2050.
The forecasts are within reports prepared by WPI for the Confederation of Passenger Transport, with that for England having been published in late 2022. Such a document for Scotland is yet to be released and thus projections for there are unavailable.
Scope – and need – for bus usage growth in Wales laid out
The scale of bus patronage growth from modal shift alone needed in Wales by 2050 to support net zero is 148%. That is well above the 79% required in England including London. However, against that challenging backdrop for Wales, WPI’s modelling claims that an increase via modal shift of 34% will be driven by existing policy there; in England, that figure is 10%.
Because ambitious investment in bus services and infrastructure would still leave a modal shift gap, WPI presents a further, revenue generative model that adds to it cheaper fares and comprehensive congestion charging in urban areas.
That would increase the level of bus passenger growth from car in Wales by 2050 to 125%, leaving a further 23% to be found to achieve what is required for net zero.
In England including London, the same enhanced approach would increase to 59% the level of bus patronage increase delivered by modal shift, leaving 20% still to be found.
Delivery assurances likely to be required if investment forthcoming
While scope is clear for the bus industry in Wales to be transformed with long-term extensive investment, questions remain about what high-level steps would be needed to ensure adequate oversight and delivery of any such work.
That was highlighted on 25 January, when Deputy Minister for Climate Change Lee Waters told the Senedd Climate Change, Environment and Infrastructure Committee that there has been some underspending of active travel budgets by local authorities (LAs). That was caused by “capacity and capability constraints.”
Mr Waters confirms that active travel spending in Wales will increase in coming years and that policymakers have come “to a very clear view” that wholesale reform of delivery mechanisms for that funding will be required, including work by, and input from, Transport for Wales (TfW). “We’re not able to ramp it up as quickly as we need to because of the delivery constraints,” adds Mr Waters.
Future policy for bus services in Wales is built on reregulation and greater involvement of LAs and TfW, suggesting that any wholesale increases in funding for the sector would need to sit behind efforts to ensure that the money could be delivered effectively.
Download the WPI Economic report for Wales here and the report for England here.
