The average price of delivered bulk diesel in September saw a rise for a fourth consecutive month as the impact of voluntary oil production cuts in Russia and Saudi Arabia hit.
Figures collated by trade body RHA show that the average then was 127.06ppl, an uplift of 6.53ppl or 5.4% from August. It followed a steeper rise of 8.4% from July to August and leaves the figure at 21.34ppl, or over 20%, higher than the year-to-date low of 105.72ppl in May.
September’s average was less than 2ppl below that seen in January, and the highest figure since then, although it remains well down on that seen 12 months prior. In September 2022, the figure was 141.29ppl, although at that time oil prices were on a downward trajectory, in contrast to last month.
Brent’s average rose by US$8 per barrel then to sit at US$92.59, its highest level since August 2022. Compounding the issue was a weakening of sterling against the US dollar, although it remains well ahead of its 2022 low.
Although Brent subsequently dropped in early October, conflict between Israel and Gaza saw prices rebound. While neither nation is an oil producer, prospect of the unrest spreading in the Middle East was cited in some reports as being behind the uptick.
A further rise in the price of oil and bulk diesel was reflected in September data published by the US Energy Information Administration (USEIA) via its Short-Term Energy Outlook. USEIA once again revised upwards its predictions for the price of Brent, with such a trend extending to the end of 2024.
USEIA now believes that Brent will average US$92.68 per barrel in the current quarter. That contrasts with the Administration’s view in May, when it believed that figure would be US$78. USEIA also forecasted in September that Brent will not fall below US$87 in 2024, which is a similarly severe uplift from previous predictions for that period.
