The Urban Transport Group (UTG) has called for recovery funding for the bus industry in England to be extended “for at least another year” if major long-term patronage and service losses via what it describes as a “vicious circle” are to be avoided
Continuing COVID Funding Support for Urban Public Transport, prepared by Steer, finds that the number of bus passenger journeys made in English city regions outside London could settle at an equilibrium of up to 30% below pre-pandemic figures, and over a quarter of scheduled mileage in those areas could be lost, if the government does not extend funding for the sector beyond the planned end of Bus Recovery Grant (BRG) on 5 April.
Those losses would be seen within one year of the termination of BRG, the report states. It counters by saying that if instead no services are reduced, patronage will return to 85% of the January 2020 level by this summer. “That is, Omicron will not have affected the scale of the recovery, but it will have set back the date when this figure is reached.”
However, operating costs are higher than they were pre-pandemic and thus if recovery funding ceases in April, the position will be “not sustainable for any operator.” That will most likely lead to steps being taken to both reduce services and increase fare yield.
That will manifest itself in a reduction in patronage, the report states, with usage settling at 70% of pre-COVID-19 levels, although the report accepts that such a figure “is a worst-case position.”
If public sector support for buses via BSOG, supported service budgets and ENCTS payments was increased by 100%, UTG’s Metropolitan Bus Model shows that patronage in English metropolitan areas would return to around 95% of January 2020 levels by the end of financial year 2022/23.
The Group adds that “investing now in revenue support to maintain patronage has the potential to be more cost effective that paying later to invest in capital schemes intended to try and get that demand back.”
UTG Chair Laura Shoaf comments: “We are now standing on the precipice of a huge reduction in services that could deal a devastating blow to passengers who rely on them. As the modelling in this report shows, there is a solution to stemming the decline in patronage, which is for the government to extend its current financial support beyond March.”
The Department for Transport has told operators and local authorities separately that it is considering an extension of recovery funding beyond 5 April, but no agreement has yet been reached with the Treasury.
Download the Steer report here.
