An ongoing gauge of coach operator business confidence carried out by the routeone marketing team saw the result decline by a further 25.5% over the month to 8 October, to –0.59.
The figure monitors attitudes and behaviours surrounding coronavirus COVID-19 and it is created through a survey of operators. It stood at –0.47 in September.
The decline in October came as the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) starts to wind down in favour of the less generous Job Support Scheme (JSS). The drop in confidence is apparent across all coach operating sectors. In the school contract market it dropped by 9% and in private hire by 4%. Business confidence in the day trips and excursions, short breaks and holidays and rail replacement segments varies only slightly from that recorded by the September survey.
Business reopening: Some not until 2021
56% of those businesses surveyed closed temporarily due to the government’s movement restriction measures. Of those, 87% have now reopened. Of the businesses that are still closed, 32% intend to reopen by the end of 2020. The remaining businesses that are closed plan to reopen by May 2021.
Number of vehicles off the road reduces in October
Unsurprisingly in view of the staged ramp-up to the new school year in some areas, the number of vehicles that respondents have on the road has improved since the September survey. In that month, 37% of operators reported that 91-100% of their vehicles were off the road. In October, that has improved to only 7% reporting the same number of vehicles off the road.
The forthcoming Job Support Scheme
Only 25% of those surveyed indicated that their business will qualify for JSS, which succeeds CJRS on 1 November. 30% remain unsure if they can access JSS. Of the businesses that owners and Managing Directors believe will qualify for the new scheme, 50% believe that 81-100% of their workforce will benefit from it.
Uncertainty over redundancies continues
51% of those that completed the coach operator business confidence survey in October have been able to retain 91–100% of their workforce with CJRS in place. Conversely, 15% have retained only 10% or less of their workforce since the pandemic began.
In September, 22% of operators thought their remaining workforce would be reduced by 50% or more as CJRS comes to an end.
Following Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s announcement of JSS, 37% of respondents in October now believe that it is very likely or extremely likely that they will need to make further redundancies. However, there is disparity over how much of their remaining workforce will be affected. The 37% is broken down thus*:
- 13% are unsure of how many redundancies they will need to make
- 39% indicated that their workforce will be reduced by less than 20%
- 19% indicated that their workforce will be reduced by between 21-40%
- 13% indicated that their workforce will be reduced by between 41-60%
- 6% indicated that their workforce will be reduced by between 61–80%
- 10% indicated that their workforce will be reduced by between 81-100%.
40% of respondents have indicated that it is either not very likely or highly unlikely that they will make any further redundancies.
For further information including research methodology contact marketing@route-one.net.
