Another week, and another paper has been published on bus policy. This time it is by the Social Market Foundation. It follows hot on the heels of the Centre for Cities paper from three weeks ago.
This particular paper is rather more thoughtful than many. It’s about the factors that determine how a bus market works, rather than a direct criticism of the deregulated model.
Even so, there is more than the odd hint that franchising, at least in the metropolitan areas, is likely to be the best model for driving up patronage. Municipal ownership is also held up as a model worth developing.
Its title, Driving change in the bus market: Lessons from London, also gives an idea that the London model is again seen as the gold standard, without any assessment of whether its costs are justified. I’m not saying that they aren’t. It would just be nice to see a detailed assessment of those benefits.
Political recognition for buses policies
Whatever one’s views on buses policies, there is little doubt that the mode is set to be a major beneficiary of the General Election. All three parties have pledged to plough billions of pounds into supporting bus services.
The potential for bus improvements to reduce congestion and pollution is widely recognised across the political spectrum. For my money at least, there is a growing political convergence on what the right policy approach towards securing improved services and greater patronage might be.
Whichever party wins the election, it looks like the humble bus may be a rather higher priority than, arguably, it has been for many years.
Is Boris still in front?
As this issue lands on your doormat (or arrives in your inbox), polling is imminent. I’ve just attended a presentation by the polling company YouGov. As I write, it is predicting a Conservative majority of 68, although it acknowledges that the polling data needs updating, since YouGov’s hunch is that the polls are narrowing a little.
But even if support for the Conservatives drops a couple of points by polling day, YouGov believes that the party would still have a majority of around 35 or so.
What was especially interesting was that YouGov predicts that the Conservatives will lose just two of their 13 seats in Scotland. Yet at the start of the campaign, the assumption was that the Conservatives would be wiped out north of the border.
I’ve come to distrust polls ever since they got the results so badly wrong in 2015. I have a hunch that the result will be much closer than YouGov is suggesting.
Boris Johnson is nothing like as popular as he was when he was Mayor of London. If normal Conservative supporters who are die-hard Remainers vote tactically and switch to the Lib Dems (as is expected in Conservative seats such as Wimbledon and Esher and Walton), the party may yet be in for a nasty shock.
