The bus industry is navigating a dynamic landscape of changing travel patterns and funding challenges, complicated further by the latest figures from the Department for Transport.
It seems there is some good news overall with an upturn in passenger numbers. In Scotland, following the introduction of free bus travel for the under-22s, customer volume grew by nearly 30% and, in England, where passengers have enjoyed an extended fare cap, the rise was 19%. Wales, with no fare cap and no free travel for young people but with a small rise in bus mileage, saw the lowest growth at just over 15%.
So, cutting fares during a cost-of-living crisis encourages people back on board. Who knew? Well, franchising proposals, it would seem, as many appear to be planning for a fall in passenger numbers creating a causality loop of chicken-and-egg proportions.
While no one is actually hoping for this outcome, it’s easy to understand why these predictions are being made. Decades of short-term, car-centric policies and a funding approach that pitches local transport authorities against each other in costly and often unsuccessful funding bids have decimated passenger numbers, routes and services.
While the current batch of franchising proposals seem to be preparing for a decline in passengers, successful Bus Service Improvement Plans are seeing strong uplifts in traveller numbers and improvements in the frequency and reliability of services leading to further growth in passengers. Only recently, Norfolk announced a rise of 16% in passenger numbers — 107% on prepandemic levels — as a result of receiving a large grant from government and boosted by the £2 fare cap.
The cost of owning or driving a private car is putting it out of the reach of many people
In fact, the conditions for future passenger growth UK-wide are clearly in evidence. Many employers are now pursuing return-to-office policies, we have an ageing population increasingly in need of accessible transport, the cost of owning or driving a private car is putting it out of the reach of many people, particularly the young, and unprecedented levels of congestion fuelled by the move towards expensive electric vehicles are strengthening the case for alternative transport options.
Then there is the benefit-cost ratio of not investing in bus services versus the long-term financial impacts of transport poverty. Loneliness and isolation exact a heavy toll on social care budgets, and there are economic, not to mention human, costs to rising congestion and pollution. So, if a problem well-stated is a problem half-solved, it’s time to join the dots.
In our Bus Manifesto for 2024, Bus Users UK is calling for a fully-funded and long-term strategy to prioritise public, shared and active travel. With a general election looming, we need the incoming government to realise the potential of bus services as a force for social, environmental and economic good.
Our manifesto makes the case for a joined-up approach to transport that is accessible, integrated and built around the current and future needs of the communities it serves. It needs to be attractive to passengers, which means frequent and reliable, and it needs to be affordable.
Then we need to start planning for passenger growth because, if we deliver this, they will come.
