The average price of delivered-in bulk diesel saw a second consecutive monthly uplift in November according to figures collated by RHA, rising by 2.42ppl, or 2.3%, to 108.21ppl excluding VAT.
Such a return put bulk diesel at a four-month high and reflected a fall in sterling against the US dollar from October. For 2024 to the end of November the average price of diesel via the trade body’s figures has been 111.69ppl, which compares well to 117.88ppl for the same 11-month period a year earlier.
While the November average for delivered-in bulk diesel represented the highest such figure since July, it remained lower than each of the first seven months of the year and was almost 10ppl under the average of November 2023, albeit with a weaker sterling in the latter case.
Brent crude prices fell during November, with some sources suggesting that over-supply could become an issue for producers during 2025. Portland Pricing notes that slower oil imports by China are a factor, although it adds that a predicted surplus of oil production next year may be partially mitigated by output adjustments by OPEC+ members.
In early December, the US Energy Information Administration (USEIA) once again revised downwards its predictions for average oil prices in 2025.
USEIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook now believes that the coming year’s figure will peak at US$74.33 per barrel during Q2 and conclude in Q4 at US$72.00 to give a four-quarter average for 2025 of US$73.58. The 2024 average forecast remains at US$80.49
The Agency’s position in November had quarterly and year-long averages for 2025 above those presented in December, with October’s forecasts largely being higher still.
USEIA predicts that next year will see an increase in global oil production of 1.6 million barrels per day, with that mostly coming from non-OPEC countries. In addition, a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is cited by the Agency as removing some of the “risk premium” in oil prices.
