The average price of delivered bulk diesel fell for a third consecutive month in November, according to data compiled by RHA.
Such a shift came against a background of ongoing OPEC+ production cuts that are being countered by growth of output in other nations, and flatlining demand in China. The diesel average for November was 117.95ppl excluding VAT, down by 6.46ppl, or 5.2%, from October’s 124.41ppl and a fall of 9.11ppl, or 7.2%, from the recent high of 127.06ppl in September.
November’s return remained significantly above the 2023 low of 105.72ppl seen in May. But it was 21.60ppl, or 15.5%, under the average 12 months earlier, where at 139.55ppl, a steep fall from in excess of 150ppl in October 2022 had been recorded. The most recent figure additionally comes in at almost 25% below the crisis high of 155.41ppl in June 2022.
Brent also dropped in November, to an average of US$82.04 per barrel according to RHA’s data. That represented a decline of US$5.29, or 6.1%, from US$87.33 in October. The latest figure remains above some seen earlier in the year, but it is still a four-month low.
As previously noted, the US Energy Information Administration (USEIA) in November revised down its estimate for the Brent average in Q4 to US$90.27, albeit still representing an uplift from the Q3 actual.
USEIA’s December forecast was not available at the time of writing, but the November publication held that Brent would further increase in Q1 and Q2 2024 before falling back slightly. Global oil consumption is predicted to consistently grow from Q4 2023 to Q4 2024.
While some sources have noted that the war between Israel and Hamas is likely to have little impact on oil prices, USEIA cautions that there is still scope for an effect to be felt. The Agency predicts that oil production will grow from Q2 2024.
Despite the lowering bulk diesel average price, coach hire rates remain strong according to reports from operators. One notes that for smaller, part-day jobs, the position is particularly favourable, with work availability a positive influence on earning potential.
