The average price of delivered-in bulk diesel rose by a fraction in October but the month’s return of 105.79ppl plus VAT was still the second-lowest since May 2023, data collated by RHA has shown.
That figure was up by 1.65ppl or 1.6% from September when a three-year low of 104.14ppl was seen. However, the October price was well below the 124.41ppl from 12 months earlier and is almost a third lower than the over-155ppl peak of the 2022 fuel crisis.
Sterling weakened slightly against the US dollar in October and the average oil price rose slightly. Some sources suggest that oil will hold at around its current level in 2025. That is reflected in the latest US Energy Information Administration (USEIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook, published on 4 October.
It has significantly revised downward USEIA’s September forecasts for oil prices. The Q4 prediction is now US$75.97 per barrel, against a position of US$81.64 for that period made in September.
Lowered expectations for 2025 are even more marked, with each quarter downgraded substantially. The October report puts Brent crude in Q4 2025 at US$75.72 per barrel against US$83.00 expected in September. The 2025 full-year average forecast from USEIA is US$77.59 in October against US$84.09 in September, a month-on-month decline of 7.7%.
Such a fall in predicted oil prices is down to what the Agency says is an expected reduction in global oil demand in 2025, although it notes that conflict in the Middle East raises the possibility of supply disruption and an uptick in prices.
Steady bulk diesel prices have been welcomed by one coach operator, who has also applauded Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s decision to maintain the temporary 5ppl cut in fuel duty.
The operator expected that the reduction would be allowed to lapse under the recent budget, although its chief expects that an increase in employers’ national insurance contributions will account for much of the financial benefit of maintaining the fuel duty cut.
