Further financial support packages for some commercial bus services in England outside London must be developed quickly by the industry, politicians and local transport authorities (LTAs) if wholesale network reductions ahead of the Bus Recovery Grant (BRG) Extension mechanism ending later this year are to be prevented, Rotala Chief Executive Simon Dunn has said.
Mr Dunn’s comments come after the scale became clear of potential cuts to Rotala’s Diamond Bus West Midlands network in Worcestershire should patronage not return to pre-pandemic levels by August, or if a solution for further support is not arrived at in the meantime.
Up to 12 commercial Diamond Bus services in Worcestershire, including some serving schools, could be withdrawn entirely, although one other service would be reintroduced under Rotala’s proposals. Reductions on a lesser scale, including some withdrawals, could impact other parts of the group’s West Midlands network under the plans, according to a list published on its website.
Political support called for to prevent bus service reductions
That is a situation that Mr Dunn believes could repeat in other parts of England if no further funding follows BRG Extension. It is scheduled to end on 4 October. The Department for Transport (DfT) has repeatedly said that BRG Extension will represent the last recovery support package from central government and that no more money will be made available beyond that date.
In a letter to politicians, LTAs and DfT, Mr Dunn notes: “I am writing this in the hope that DfT considers the implications of what is happening and the repercussions that are surely coming. There is a need for ongoing liaison with bus operators and representative organisations such as ALBUM to try and deal with these issues.
“This is not a Rotala-only issue, but an industry-wide one. I believe that what will ultimately happen is that lots of areas will lose their bus services unless there is a major change in approach.” Rotala has already presented a possible solution to Worcestershire County Council that Mr Dunn says can be delivered on a relatively cost-effective basis.
WYCA Network Review work highlights risk to services
Rotala’s warning preceded comments made before the Transport Select Committee on 8 June. At that hearing, representatives of three groups agreed that contraction of some services is inevitable post-BRG Extension, with The Go-Ahead Group Managing Director UK Regional Bus Martin Dean telling MPs that some services “are just not commercial anymore.”
Meanwhile, in evidence that adds further weight to worries of heavy service cuts later this year, work by the West Yorkshire Combined Authority (WYCA) on a bus network review has revealed that up to 62 routes in the conurbation are at risk of partial or total withdrawal.
That detail is contained in papers published ahead of a meeting of WYCA’s Transport Committee on 1 July.
An analysis by WYCA has identified that 11% of the West Yorkshire bus network by mileage is not currently generating sufficient revenue to operate commercially after BRG Extension closes.
In February, the Urban Transport Group – of which WYCA is a member – called for an extension of bus funding “for at least another year” if major long-term patronage and service reductions are to be avoided.
WYCA adds that Bus Service Improvement Plan-funded service improvements will commence in early 2023, and it hopes to be able to retain as much of the current provision as possible until then. The Combined Authority currently supports around 22% of all bus mileage in the region at a cost of £16m per annum.
Low-frequency bus services in greatest need of support
Mr Dunn has spoken to at least six MPs on the same basis as his letter to DfT, councillors and LTAs. He says that communication was opened early in the hope of presenting the situation while time still exists to do something about it.
Speaking to routeone, Mr Dunn accepts that the bus industry in England has been well supported by DfT since the COVID-19 pandemic broke. He adds that while high-frequency urban services can be thinned via a small increase in headway relatively easily, the situation is much more difficult on low-frequency routes. Some smaller towns could be facing the withdrawal of all their commercial services unless action is taken quickly, Mr Dunn suggests.
BSOG could represent a potential mitigation, he suggests. Rotala has thus called on DfT to rapidly accelerate its slow review of the scheme in England, including a consideration of how it supports rural services. Mr Dunn additionally notes that “surely the concessionary fares elasticity curve is no longer reflective of the current market conditions” in view of the slower rate of return of those customers.
Withdrawal of services could cause a significant problem for home-to-school transport, Mr Dunn adds. In Worcestershire, Diamond Bus carries 3,000 children per week making those journeys. Should the services they use be removed, that would lead to a combination of additional car trips and a need for more shared transport.
Difficulties predicted by Nexus ahead of rescue package
In North East England, PTE Nexus drew up a £4.3m package in June to respond to some cuts to services that will be made by Go North East (GNE) this month in response to lower passenger numbers, although in a handful of instances either frequency will be increased or new links created as part of the revisions. Durham County Council has also agreed funding to continue some services, although not necessarily under continued GNE operation.
Nexus claims that it represents the second time in 2022 that it has had to intervene financially.
Its package covers Gateshead, South Tyneside and Sunderland, but not all cuts will see a like-for-like replacement.
In a statement, Chair of the North East Joint Transport Committee Cllr Martin Gannon acknowledges that cuts to commercial services are as a result of lower patronage and the impending end of BRG Extension.
Nexus had earlier predicted a need for such steps and increased local authorities’ contributions to the Committee’s budget to create “a fighting fund” to “safeguard as many services as possible.” Cllr Gannon adds: “I fear that there may be more difficult choices ahead for bus operators and local authorities.”
In announcing a consultation on the proposed cuts in May, GNE observed that while ridership was continuing to rebuild, “it is clear that some services won’t recover to the point of being viable without changes or external support” and that reductions in commercial provision are necessary to ensure a sustainable future network. Some of GNE’s proposed withdrawals were removed after the consultation closed. It generated almost 9,000 responses.
